Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

M. Ivanović 40'

1/28/2025

Championship · Round 17Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Portsmouth42%

×Draw26%

Millwall33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.26

Portsmouth

1.45

Millwall

1.26

Portsmouth creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

1.61

creates per match

1.38

1.15

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.61

Millwall

1.38

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.15

Millwall

1.29

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.44scores less

Millwall-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

67%

Portsmouth or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

58%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

20%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

77%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

42%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

18%

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

36%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

56%

Millwall (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.61 + Millwall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Millwall attack 1.38 + Portsmouth defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portsmouth scores more

42%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

33%

Portsmouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Murphy

Portsmouth · M

7.7

Match Events

40'

M. Ivanović↳ R. Bangura-Williams

53'

Raees Bangura-Williams

57'

G. Honeyman← D. Watmore

62'

Aaron Connolly

67'

A. Dozzell← I. Hayden

68'

R. Wintle← R. Bangura-Williams

69'

M. Langstaff← M. Ivanović

69'

B. Mitchell← C. De Norre

78'

C. Shaughnessy← H. Matthews

79'

T. Waddingham← M. Ritchie

85'

C. Saydee← Z. Swanson

90+2'

M. Wallace← G. Saville

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthMillwall

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots7

1.18Expected Goals (xG)1.40

7Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots7

3On Target1

8Off Target5

4Blocked1

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

386Total Passes231

266Accurate Passes123

69%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

9Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Championship: Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall

Millwall beat Portsmouth 1-0 in Championship on January 28, 2025.

Goals: M. Ivanović (40').

Portsmouth controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall