Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

C. De Norre 64'

M. Pack 67'

J. Swift 55'

G. Caballero 46'

2/21/2026

Championship · Round 33The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Millwall47%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.95

Millwall

1.37

Portsmouth

0.95

Millwall creates 44% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

1.45

creates per match

0.94

0.96

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Millwall

1.45

Portsmouth

0.94

allows per match

Millwall

0.96

Portsmouth

1.29

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall+0.03on par

Portsmouth+0.39scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

74%

Millwall or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

22%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

40%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

61%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

25%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

64%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.45 + Portsmouth defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Portsmouth attack 0.94 + Millwall defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more

47%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

26%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

C. De Norre

Millwall · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

46'

55'

60'

61'

M. Langstaff← T. Watson

64'

C. De Norre↳ M. Langstaff

67'

M. Pack

70'

A. Segecic← J. Swift

75'

Tristan Crama

81'

Z. Sturge← A. Doughty

81'

T. Ballo← F. Azeez

81'

R. Leonard← T. Crama

82'

B. Bannan← C. De Norre

86'

J. Brown← G. Caballero

90+2'

I. Bowat← M. Alli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallPortsmouth

Overview

53%Possession47%

6Total Shots15

0.42Expected Goals (xG)1.52

6Corners4

13Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots15

3On Target8

2Off Target3

1Blocked4

4Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

362Total Passes327

269Accurate Passes224

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.15Goals Prevented0.15

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2