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Millwall vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
M. Ivanović 87', 57'
A. Dozzell 80'
4/5/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Millwall48%
×Draw27%
Portsmouth25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.40
Portsmouth
0.93

Millwall creates 51% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.35
Portsmouth
0.88

allows per match

Millwall
0.97
Portsmouth
1.44

finishing

Millwall-0.04on par
Portsmouth+0.22scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
75%
Millwall or Portsmouth
73%
Draw or Portsmouth
52%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
23%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
75%
Millwall 2+ goals
41%
Millwall 3+ goals
17%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
61%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
24%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
66%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.35 + Portsmouth defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portsmouth attack 0.88 + Millwall defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Millwall scores more
48%
level
27%
Portsmouth scores more
25%

Millwall at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
G. HoneymanMillwallMillwall · M
8.7

Match Events

29'
Terry Devlin
43'
R. Leonard← J. Tanganga
57'
M. Ivanović↳ G. Honeyman
59'
Colby Bishop
67'
Matt Ritchie
69'
M. Pack← C. Bramall
69'
H. Blair← M. Ritchie
69'
C. Saydee← J. Williams
80'
A. Dozzell
82'
B. Mitchell← G. Saville
82'
M. Langstaff← J. Coburn
82'
A. Emakhu← A. Connolly
87'
M. Ivanović↳ C. De Norre
89'
T. Waddingham← T. Devlin
90+1'
Marlon Pack

Possession

49%Millwall

Shots

14Millwall

Pass accuracy

50%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallPortsmouth
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots6
1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.63
11Corners4
20Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots6
3On Target3
5Off Target1
6Blocked2
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
263Total Passes294
168Accurate Passes189
64%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
-0.31Goals Prevented-0.31
Discipline
20Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Millwall vs Portsmouth

Millwall beat Portsmouth 2-1 in Championship on April 5, 2025.

Goals: M. Ivanović (57', 87'), A. Dozzell (80').

Portsmouth controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Den in London.