Portsmouth 2–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

Yang Min-Hyuk 90'

C. Shaughnessy 69'

H. Knibbs 90'

12/29/2025

Championship · Round 24Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Portsmouth49%

×Draw25%

Charlton25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.04

Portsmouth

1.55

Charlton

1.04

Portsmouth creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

1.47

creates per match

0.97

1.10

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.47

Charlton

0.97

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.10

Charlton

1.64

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Portsmouth-0.35scores less

Charlton-0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

75%

Portsmouth or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

51%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

25%

Charlton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

79%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

46%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

20%

Charlton 1+ goals

65%

Charlton 2+ goals

28%

Charlton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

66%

Charlton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 26 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.47 + Charlton defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Charlton attack 0.97 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portsmouth scores more

49%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

25%

Portsmouth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Shaughnessy

Portsmouth · D

7.9

Match Events

59'

Amari'i Bell

61'

Joe Rankin-Costello

64'

C. Shaughnessy← H. Matthews

64'

Yang Min-Hyuk← H. Blair

65'

M. Kosznovszky← C. Chaplin

69'

C. Shaughnessy↳ A. Segecic

74'

Regan Poole

84'

M. Gillesphey← R. Burke

84'

S. Carey← L. Berry

84'

R. Apter← J. Bree

85'

I. Bowat←

85'

H. Knibbs← J. Rankin-Costello

90+4'

Ibane Bowat

90+1'

F. Umeh← M. Kirk

90'

H. Knibbs↳ M. Leaburn

90'

Yang Min-Hyuk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthCharlton

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots16

0.74Expected Goals (xG)1.01

5Corners11

11Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots16

5On Target4

4Off Target4

6Blocked8

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

370Total Passes299

271Accurate Passes197

73%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.29Goals Prevented-0.29

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Championship: Portsmouth 2–1 Charlton

Portsmouth beat Charlton 2-1 in Championship on December 29, 2025.

Goals: C. Shaughnessy (69'), H. Knibbs (90'), Yang Min-Hyuk (90').

Portsmouth controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Charlton — Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Portsmouth 2–1 Charlton