Charlton 0–0 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

2/24/2024

League One · Round 35The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Charlton40%

×Draw26%

Portsmouth33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Charlton

1.38

Portsmouth

1.23

Charlton creates 12% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 134 away

1.65

creates per match

1.34

1.13

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Portsmouth

1.34

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Portsmouth

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

67%

Charlton or Portsmouth

74%

Draw or Portsmouth

60%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

19%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

75%

Charlton 2+ goals

40%

Charlton 3+ goals

16%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

71%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

35%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

55%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more

40%

level

26%

Portsmouth scores more

33%

Charlton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

O. Moxon

Portsmouth · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

Tyreeq Bakinson

61'

C. Aneke← A. May

61'

J. Sparkes← C. Ogilvie

67'

Lloyd Jones

73'

M. Peart-Harris← P. Lane

73'

K. Yengi← C. Lang

77'

M. Gillesphey← T. Watson

77'

Panutche Camará← T. Bakinson

90'

T. Edun← K. Anderson

90'

T. Campbell← D. Kanu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonPortsmouth

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots14

4Corners5

11Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots14

2On Target3

2Off Target8

1Blocked3

5Inside Box12

0Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

296Total Passes372

162Accurate Passes237

55%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0