Charlton 1–3 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Portsmouth

J. Fevrier 64'

T. Devlin 56', 22'

C. Bishop 35' (pen)

2/17/2026

Championship · Round 19The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Charlton43%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.10

Charlton

1.38

Portsmouth

1.10

Charlton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

1.19

creates per match

0.85

1.35

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Charlton

1.19

Portsmouth

0.85

allows per match

Charlton

1.35

Portsmouth

1.56

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.19scores less

Portsmouth+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

70%

Charlton or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

20%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

75%

Charlton 2+ goals

40%

Charlton 3+ goals

16%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

67%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

30%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

59%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 11 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.19 + Portsmouth defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Portsmouth attack 0.85 + Charlton defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more

43%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

30%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Devlin

Portsmouth · D

9.2

Match Events

7'

14'

22'

27'

31'

34'

35'

C. BishopPenalty

38'

Lloyd Jones

46'

C. Coventry← C. Coady

46'

T. Campbell← M. Leaburn

46'

J. Fevrier← H. Clarke

54'

Conor Coventry

56'

T. Devlin

63'

J. Williams← Z. Swanson

63'

J. Brown← G. Caballero

64'

J. Fevrier↳ L. Dykes

74'

Sonny Carey

79'

I. Bowat← J. Swift

80'

C. Kelman← L. Chambers

81'

L. Berry← G. Docherty

87'

Ebou Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonPortsmouth

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots12

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.14

3Corners2

16Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target6

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

299Total Passes371

188Accurate Passes267

63%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.09Goals Prevented-0.09

Discipline

16Fouls7

7Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2