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Portsmouth vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
Burnley
Burnley
1/23/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Fratton Park
52%
Burnley
model favours
21%27%52%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Portsmouth21%
×Draw27%
Burnley52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
0.79
Burnley
1.42

Burnley creates 80% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.04
Burnley
1.77

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.07
Burnley
0.54

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
48%
Portsmouth or Burnley
73%
Draw or Burnley
79%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
6%
Burnley wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
55%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
19%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
5%
Burnley 1+ goals
76%
Burnley 2+ goals
41%
Burnley 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
29%
Burnley (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.04 + Burnley defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.79

Burnley attack 1.77 + Portsmouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Portsmouth scores more
21%
level
27%
Burnley scores more
52%

Burnley at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth face Burnley (Championship)

Championship returns with Portsmouth hosting Burnley. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portsmouth host Burnley at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.