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Portsmouth vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
2/1/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Portsmouth40%
×Draw28%
Burnley32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.24
Burnley
1.08

Portsmouth creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.63
Burnley
1.04

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.11
Burnley
0.86

finishing

Portsmouth-0.83scores less
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
68%
Portsmouth or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
60%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
17%
Burnley wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
71%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
35%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
13%
Burnley 1+ goals
66%
Burnley 2+ goals
29%
Burnley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
55%
Burnley (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 5 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.63 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Burnley attack 1.04 + Portsmouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portsmouth scores more
40%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
32%

Portsmouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
N. SchmidPortsmouthPortsmouth · G
8.0

Match Events

2'
Andre Dozzell
22'
Connor Roberts
58'
H. Mejbri← J. Sarmiento
59'
Robert Atkinson
65'
I. Hayden← F. Potts
71'
H. Matthews← C. Shaughnessy
82'
Callum Lang
86'
C. Bramall← M. Ritchie
87'
T. Devlin← Z. Swanson
90'
A. Barnes← Z. Flemming

Possession

41%Portsmouth

Shots

18Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

47%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthBurnley
Overview
41%Possession59%
18Total Shots14
1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.78
3Corners3
10Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots14
3On Target6
10Off Target5
5Blocked3
13Inside Box6
5Outside Box8
Passing
41%Possession59%
289Total Passes444
200Accurate Passes347
69%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
0.70Goals Prevented0.70
Discipline
10Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Championship: Portsmouth 0–0 Burnley

Portsmouth and Burnley drew 0-0 in Championship on February 1, 2025.

Burnley controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.