Burnley 2–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portsmouth

J. Brownhill 90+4'

J. Sarmiento 63'

C. Lang 42'

9/21/2024

Championship · Round 6Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Burnley38%

×Draw31%

Portsmouth31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.91

Burnley

1.03

Portsmouth

0.91

Burnley creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.14

creates per match

1.11

0.70

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Burnley

1.14

Portsmouth

1.11

allows per match

Burnley

0.70

Portsmouth

0.93

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.30scores more

Portsmouth+0.39scores more

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

69%

Burnley or Portsmouth

69%

Draw or Portsmouth

62%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

60%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

23%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

55%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.70 · 9 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.93 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.14 + Portsmouth defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Portsmouth attack 1.11 + Burnley defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burnley scores more

38%

level

31%

Portsmouth scores more

31%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Brownhill

Burnley · M

8.3

Match Events

34'

Josh Cullen

42'

C. Lang↳ P. Lane

48'

Josh Murphy

61'

Z. Flemming← H. Mejbri

61'

J. Sarmiento← J. Anthony

61'

A. Dozzell← F. Potts

63'

J. Sarmiento↳ J. Brownhill

69'

M. Ritchie← P. Lane

76'

J. Williams← Z. Swanson

76'

77'

78'

78'

81'

J. Laurent← J. Cullen

90+3'

J. Rodríguez← L. Foster

90+4'

J. Brownhill↳ J. Worrall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyPortsmouth

Overview

70%Possession30%

18Total Shots5

1.04Expected Goals (xG)1.38

4Corners2

15Fouls4

Shots

18Total Shots5

4On Target2

7Off Target2

7Blocked1

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

561Total Passes239

483Accurate Passes159

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.68Goals Prevented-0.68

Discipline

15Fouls4

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Burnley vs Portsmouth

Burnley beat Portsmouth 2-1 in Championship on September 21, 2024.

Goals: C. Lang (42'), J. Sarmiento (63'), J. Brownhill (90+4').

Burnley controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.

Burnley vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Burnley vs Portsmouth