Burnley 0–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

D. Norris 90+1'

12/10/2011

Championship · Round 21Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Burnley39%

×Draw32%

Portsmouth29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.83

Burnley

1.02

Portsmouth

0.83

Burnley creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.15

creates per match

1.05

0.61

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Burnley

1.15

Portsmouth

1.05

allows per match

Burnley

0.61

Portsmouth

0.90

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.23scores more

Portsmouth+0.55scores more

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

71%

Burnley or Portsmouth

68%

Draw or Portsmouth

61%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

56%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

20%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

58%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.90 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.15 + Portsmouth defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Portsmouth attack 1.05 + Burnley defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burnley scores more

39%

level

32%

Portsmouth scores more

29%

Burnley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

E. Huseklepp← L. Varney

59'

M. Paterson← J. Stanislas

74'

C. Austin← S. Vokes

90+1'

D. Norris

Burnley

Portsmouth

13

3

16

5

2

8

15

19

⚽

Norris

20

Thorne

18

Kitson

11

▼

1

15

4

20

2

36

7

6

9

19

▼

Vokes

11

▼

Stanislas

59'▲M. Paterson←▼J. Stanislas

74'▲C. Austin←▼S. Vokes

Burnley substitutes

10Paterson23Austin30Stewart8Marney24Easton

20'▲E. Huseklepp←▼L. Varney

Portsmouth substitutes

10Huseklepp1Ashdown4Mokoena9Futacs25Mwaruwari

Championship: Burnley 0–1 Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Burnley 1-0 in Championship on December 10, 2011.

Goals: D. Norris (90+1').

The match was played at Turf Moor.

Burnley vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Championship: Burnley 0–1 Portsmouth