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Portland Timbers vs Nashville SC — Major League Soccer 2026

Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Nashville SC
Nashville SC
E. Williamson 29'
J. Rodríguez 24', 21'
F. Mora 18'
S. Surridge 82'
7/8/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 33Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Portland Timbers44%
×Draw24%
Nashville SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers
1.61
Nashville SC
1.34

Portland Timbers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 36 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers
1.73
Nashville SC
1.26

allows per match

Portland Timbers
1.43
Nashville SC
1.49

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.17scores more
Nashville SC-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

Nashville SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw
68%
Portland Timbers or Nashville SC
76%
Draw or Nashville SC
56%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+
22%
Nashville SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals
80%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
48%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
22%
Nashville SC 1+ goals
74%
Nashville SC 2+ goals
39%
Nashville SC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
58%
Nashville SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.49 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.73 + Nashville SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nashville SC attack 1.26 + Portland Timbers defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portland Timbers scores more
44%
level
24%
Nashville SC scores more
32%

Portland Timbers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. RodríguezPortland TimbersPortland Timbers · M
9.3

Match Events

18'
F. Mora↳ J. Rodríguez
21'
J. Rodríguez↳ J. Mosquera
24'
J. Rodríguez↳ S. Moreno
29'
E. Williamson↳ S. Moreno
34'
Tah AnungaCard upgrade
35'
Tah Anunga
45+8'
Jonathan RodríguezPenalty cancelled
46'
Antony← D. Ayala
46'
J. Bauer← D. Lovitz
62'
Z. McGraw← D. Župarić
62'
E. Miller← J. Mosquera
63'
A. Sejdić← D. Yearwood
63'
T. Bunbury← F. Ajago
73'
B. Kallman← W. Zimmerman
76'
C. Paredes← S. Moreno
78'
T. Boyd← H. Mukhtar
82'
S. Surridge↳ S. Moore
85'
A. Enriquez← E. Williamson
90+4'
Brent Kallman

Possession

53%Portland

Shots

18Portland

Pass accuracy

50%Portland

Statistics

PortlandNashville
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots12
2.83Expected Goals (xG)2.19
3Corners3
10Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots12
8On Target3
7Off Target5
3Blocked4
17Inside Box11
1Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
530Total Passes466
468Accurate Passes405
88%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54
Discipline
10Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers 4–1 Nashville SC

Portland Timbers beat Nashville SC 4-1 in Major League Soccer on July 8, 2024.

Goals: F. Mora (18'), J. Rodríguez (21', 24'), E. Williamson (29'), S. Surridge (82').

Portland Timbers controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.