Nashville SC 2–0 Portland Timbers: Result & Stats

Nashville SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Timbers

A. Qasem 68'

A. Najar 45'

3/9/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 3Geodis Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Nashville SC51%

×Draw24%

Portland Timbers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nashville SCExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

Nashville SC

1.75

Portland Timbers

1.15

Nashville SC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 39 away

1.66

creates per match

1.18

1.11

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Nashville SC

1.66

Portland Timbers

1.18

allows per match

Nashville SC

1.11

Portland Timbers

1.85

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Nashville SC+0.43scores more

Portland Timbers+0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw

75%

Nashville SC or Portland Timbers

76%

Draw or Portland Timbers

49%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+

28%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals

83%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

52%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

25%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

68%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

32%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

67%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.11 · 34 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.66 + Portland Timbers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Portland Timbers attack 1.18 + Nashville SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nashville SC scores more

51%

level

24%

Portland Timbers scores more

25%

Nashville SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

J. Pantemis

Portland Timbers · G

9.6

Match Events

5'

45'

46'

46'

46'

S. Moreno← A. Lassiter

68'

A. Qasem↳ D. Lovitz

76'

K. Miller← J. Fory

76'

F. Mora← K. Kelsy

77'

J. Perez← A. Qasem

77'

T. Bunbury← H. Mukhtar

82'

David Ayala

86'

G. Brugman← P. Yazbek

90'

J. Bauer← A. Najar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NashvillePortland

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots9

2.71Expected Goals (xG)0.50

5Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots9

12On Target4

7Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box4

10Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

591Total Passes443

514Accurate Passes352

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves10

0.96Goals Prevented0.96

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2