Portland Timbers 1–1 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Portland Timbers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nashville SC

S. Moreno 27'

T. Bunbury 20'

8/4/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 33Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Portland Timbers44%

×Draw24%

Nashville SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.34

Portland Timbers

1.61

Nashville SC

1.34

Portland Timbers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 36 away

1.73

creates per match

1.26

1.43

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.73

Nashville SC

1.26

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.43

Nashville SC

1.49

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.17scores more

Nashville SC-0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

68%

Portland Timbers or Nashville SC

76%

Draw or Nashville SC

56%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

22%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

80%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

48%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

22%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

74%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

39%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

58%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.49 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.73 + Nashville SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nashville SC attack 1.26 + Portland Timbers defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

44%

level

24%

Nashville SC scores more

32%

Portland Timbers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Moreno

Portland Timbers · F

8.3

Match Events

20'

27'

45+1'

60'

67'

73'

C. Sapong← H. Mukhtar

73'

E. Miller← S. Moore

81'

Nathan Fogaça← S. Blanco

81'

Z. McGraw← Y. Chara

87'

L. Haakenson← R. Leal

90'

Zac McGraw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandNashville

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots14

4Corners5

6Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots14

3On Target5

9Off Target5

5Blocked4

9Inside Box12

8Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

457Total Passes391

379Accurate Passes303

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5