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Portadown vs Knockbreda — League #407 2026

Portadown
Portadown
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Knockbreda
Knockbreda
S. Cochrane 90+1'
R. Mayse 28'
E. McCawl 14'
G. Keke 45+2'
10/28/2023League #407League #407 · Round 13Shamrock Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portadown77%
×Draw14%
Knockbreda9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portadown
2.91
Knockbreda
0.93

Portadown creates 213% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Portadown
2.82
Knockbreda
0.86

allows per match

Portadown
1.00
Knockbreda
3.00

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par
Knockbreda+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Knockbreda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Portadown or draw
91%
Portadown or Knockbreda
86%
Draw or Knockbreda
23%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+
57%
Knockbreda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals
94%
Portadown 2+ goals
78%
Portadown 3+ goals
54%
Knockbreda 1+ goals
61%
Knockbreda 2+ goals
24%
Knockbreda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)
89%
Knockbreda (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Knockbreda away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 2.82 + Knockbreda defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.91

Knockbreda attack 0.86 + Portadown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Portadown scores more
77%
level
14%
Knockbreda scores more
9%

Portadown at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
E. McCawl
28'
R. Mayse
45+2'
G. Keke
69'
90+1'
S. Cochrane

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portadown vs Knockbreda

Portadown beat Knockbreda 3-1 in League #407 on October 28, 2023.

Goals: E. McCawl (14'), R. Mayse (28'), G. Keke (45+2'), S. Cochrane (90+1').

The match was played at Shamrock Park in Portadown.