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Knockbreda vs Portadown — League #407 2026

Knockbreda
Knockbreda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Portadown
Portadown
P. McElroy 82'
R. Mayse 1'
9/16/2023League #407League #407 · Round 7Breda Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Knockbreda45%
×Draw22%
Portadown33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Knockbreda
1.93
Portadown
1.61

Knockbreda creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Knockbreda
2.29
Portadown
1.36

allows per match

Knockbreda
1.86
Portadown
1.57

finishing

Knockbreda+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Knockbreda ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Knockbreda or draw
67%
Knockbreda or Portadown
78%
Draw or Portadown
55%

Winning margin

Knockbreda wins by 2+
25%
Portadown wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Knockbreda 1+ goals
85%
Knockbreda 2+ goals
57%
Knockbreda 3+ goals
30%
Portadown 1+ goals
80%
Portadown 2+ goals
48%
Portadown 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Knockbreda (draw refunded)
58%
Portadown (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Knockbreda at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Knockbreda attack 2.29 + Portadown defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.93

Portadown attack 1.36 + Knockbreda defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Knockbreda scores more
45%
level
22%
Portadown scores more
33%

Knockbreda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Knockbreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
R. Mayse
82'
P. McElroy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Knockbreda vs Portadown

Portadown beat Knockbreda 2-0 in League #407 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: R. Mayse (1'), P. McElroy (82').

The match was played at Breda Park in Belfast.