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Knockbreda vs Portadown — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Knockbreda
Knockbreda
FT
2 – 2
Portadown
Portadown
Unknown 79', 60'
A. Salley 50' (pen)
S. McLeod 46'
7/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Breda Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Knockbreda14%
×Draw17%
Portadown69%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Knockbreda
1.06
Portadown
2.52

Portadown creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Knockbreda
1.00
Portadown
2.38

allows per match

Knockbreda
2.67
Portadown
1.13

finishing

Knockbreda+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Knockbreda ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Knockbreda or draw
31%
Knockbreda or Portadown
83%
Draw or Portadown
86%

Winning margin

Knockbreda wins by 2+
5%
Portadown wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Knockbreda 1+ goals
65%
Knockbreda 2+ goals
29%
Knockbreda 3+ goals
9%
Portadown 1+ goals
92%
Portadown 2+ goals
71%
Portadown 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Knockbreda (draw refunded)
17%
Portadown (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Knockbreda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Portadown away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Knockbreda attack 1.00 + Portadown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Portadown attack 2.38 + Knockbreda defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Knockbreda scores more
14%
level
17%
Portadown scores more
69%

Portadown at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
S. McLeod
50'
A. SalleyPenalty
60'
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Knockbreda 2–2 Portadown

Knockbreda and Portadown drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 30, 2021.

Goals: S. McLeod (46'), A. Salley (50' pen), ? (60', 79').

The match was played at Breda Park in Belfast.