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Port Vale vs Swindon Town — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
19:45
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Vale Park
44%
Port Vale
model favours
44%26%31%

Swindon Town score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Port Vale44%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.49
Swindon Town
1.21

Port Vale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.61
Swindon Town
1.40

allows per match

Port Vale
1.03
Swindon Town
1.37

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
69%
Port Vale or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
56%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
77%
Port Vale 2+ goals
44%
Port Vale 3+ goals
19%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
70%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
34%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
59%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.61 + Swindon Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Swindon Town attack 1.40 + Port Vale defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Vale scores more
44%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
31%

Port Vale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches
  • Swindon Town have scored in 10 games running
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • 70% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Port Vale and Swindon Town have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Port Vale
Balanced
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
50%PossessionBiggest gap54%
66%Pass accuracy72%
12.4Shots13.1
—xG1.78
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Port ValeSwindon Town

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
Town
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Port Vale vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Port Vale face Swindon Town on February 9, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Port Vale host Swindon Town at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.