Port Vale 2–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

J. Taylor 52'

S. Burgess 13'

12/29/2019

League Two · Round 24Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale40%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Port Vale

1.40

Swindon Town

1.25

Port Vale creates 12% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 155 away

1.37

creates per match

1.45

1.05

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Swindon Town

1.45

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Swindon Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

66%

Port Vale or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

19%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

75%

Port Vale 2+ goals

41%

Port Vale 3+ goals

17%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

55%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Port Vale scores more

40%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Port Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Brown

Port Vale · G

7.8

Match Events

4'

8'

13'

19'

45'

52'

J. Taylor↳ C. Montaño

65'

L. Isgrove← M. Doughty

75'

M. Cullen← T. Pope

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortSwindon

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots14

1Corners8

10Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target7

0Blocked3

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box7

Passing

33%Possession67%

272Total Passes542

157Accurate Passes433

58%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0