Port Vale 0–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

E. Mason-Clark 14'

10/24/2023

League One · Round 15Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Port Vale36%

×Draw27%

Peterborough36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Port Vale

1.25

Peterborough

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

0.96

creates per match

1.25

1.24

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Port Vale

0.96

Peterborough

1.25

allows per match

Port Vale

1.24

Peterborough

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

64%

Port Vale or Peterborough

73%

Draw or Peterborough

64%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

16%

Peterborough wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

36%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Peterborough 1+ goals

71%

Peterborough 2+ goals

36%

Peterborough 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

50%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Peterborough attack 1.25 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Port Vale scores more

36%

level

27%

Peterborough scores more

36%

Port Vale at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Edwards

Peterborough · D

8.3

Match Events

14'

E. Mason-Clark↳ K. Poku

24'

Archie Collins

32'

Ben Garrity

41'

J. Katongo← A. Collins

45+8'

J. Debrah← K. Balmer

46'

U. Ikpeazu← R. Loft

54'

Joshua Thomas← E. Chislett

54'

J. Plant← M. Clark

55'

Kwame Poku

62'

D. Ajiboye← K. Poku

70'

A. Devine← O. Arblaster

70'

T. Sang← G. Massey

73'

Peter Kioso

76'

Z. Sturge← R. Jones

76'

R. De Havilland← J. Randall

79'

Hector Kyprianou

83'

R. Crichlow-Noble← P. Kioso

83'

J. Clarke-Harris← H. Burrows

90+8'

Romoney Crichlow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortPeterborough

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots10

5Corners5

7Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target5

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

6Inside Box6

10Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

488Total Passes407

389Accurate Passes311

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Port Vale 1-0 in League One on October 24, 2023.

Goals: E. Mason-Clark (14').

Port Vale controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Port Vale vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Peterborough