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Peterborough vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Port Vale
Port Vale
J. Dornelly 31'
E. Archer 59', 16'
R. Croasdale 3'
4/16/2026League OneLeague One · Round 36Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough53%
×Draw25%
Port Vale22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.60
Port Vale
0.94

Peterborough creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.62
Port Vale
0.70

allows per match

Peterborough
1.19
Port Vale
1.58

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
78%
Peterborough or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
47%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
28%
Port Vale wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
80%
Peterborough 2+ goals
47%
Peterborough 3+ goals
22%
Port Vale 1+ goals
61%
Port Vale 2+ goals
24%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
70%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.62 + Port Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Port Vale attack 0.70 + Peterborough defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Peterborough scores more
53%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
22%

Peterborough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. ArcherPort ValePort Vale · F
9.3

Match Events

3'
R. Croasdale↳ O. Hernandez
16'
E. Archer
31'
J. Dornelly↳ M. Garbett
52'
L. Gordon← O. Hernandez
55'
C. Hayes← B. Shofowoke
59'
E. Archer
64'
O. Aderoju← P. Kioso
64'
D. Kamara← M. Garbett
69'
David Kamara
70'
Tyler Magloire
71'
C. Humphreys← J. Headley
83'
B. Waine← G. Ward
83'
D. Brown← M. Sherif
84'
P. Sykut← B. Khela

Possession

70%Peterborough

Shots

17Peterborough

Pass accuracy

55%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughPort
Overview
70%Possession30%
17Total Shots7
9Corners1
13Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots7
3On Target4
6Off Target3
8Blocked0
10Inside Box3
7Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
522Total Passes230
430Accurate Passes153
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Peterborough 3-1 in League One on April 16, 2026.

Goals: R. Croasdale (3'), E. Archer (16', 59'), J. Dornelly (31').

Peterborough controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.