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Peterborough vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
A. Iacovitti 86' (OG)
H. Burrows 56' (pen)
J. Randall 45+2'
4/10/2024League OneLeague One · Round 33Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough53%
×Draw25%
Port Vale22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.62
Port Vale
0.95

Peterborough creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.62
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Peterborough
1.19
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
78%
Peterborough or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
47%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
28%
Port Vale wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
80%
Peterborough 2+ goals
48%
Peterborough 3+ goals
22%
Port Vale 1+ goals
61%
Port Vale 2+ goals
25%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
71%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.62 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Peterborough defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Peterborough scores more
53%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
22%

Peterborough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
H. BurrowsPeterboroughPeterborough · D
8.9

Match Events

7'
Funso Ojo
45'
Josh Knight
45+2'
J. Randall↳ H. Burrows
46'
E. Chislett← F. Ojo
56'
H. BurrowsPenalty
60'
J. Shorrock← G. Massey
60'
U. Ikpeazu← R. Loft
67'
B. Dipepa← R. Walters
76'
M. Mothersille← R. Jones
76'
D. Ajiboye← J. Randall
77'
Jason Lowe
85'
Uche Ikpeazu
86'
A. IacovittiOwn goal
89'
R. Crichlow-Noble← J. Knight

Possession

74%Peterborough

Shots

16Peterborough

Pass accuracy

56%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughPort
Overview
74%Possession26%
16Total Shots3
13Corners1
8Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots3
7On Target1
7Off Target2
2Blocked0
9Inside Box0
7Outside Box3
Passing
74%Possession26%
663Total Passes235
602Accurate Passes166
91%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
7Offsides1

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Port Vale

Peterborough beat Port Vale 3-0 in League One on April 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Randall (45+2'), H. Burrows (56' pen), A. Iacovitti (86' o.g.).

Peterborough controlled possession (74%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.