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Port Vale vs Oldham — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
3/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Vale Park
36%
Port Vale
model favours
36%32%32%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
71%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale36%
×Draw32%
Oldham32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
0.97
Oldham
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.75
Oldham
1.30

allows per match

Port Vale
0.50
Oldham
1.19

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
68%
Port Vale or Oldham
68%
Draw or Oldham
64%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
13%
Oldham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
25%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%
Oldham 1+ goals
59%
Oldham 2+ goals
23%
Oldham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
53%
Oldham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.75 + Oldham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Oldham attack 1.30 + Port Vale defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Port Vale scores more
36%
level
32%
Oldham scores more
32%

Port Vale at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Port Vale host Oldham

March 6, 2027: Port Vale take on Oldham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Port Vale host Oldham at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.