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Port Vale vs Oldham — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Oldham
Oldham
B. Walker 54'
J. Proctor 34', 10'
D. Keillor-Dunn 45+1'
C. Missilou 16'
4/9/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale36%
×Draw32%
Oldham32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
0.97
Oldham
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.75
Oldham
1.30

allows per match

Port Vale
0.50
Oldham
1.19

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
68%
Port Vale or Oldham
68%
Draw or Oldham
64%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
13%
Oldham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
25%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%
Oldham 1+ goals
59%
Oldham 2+ goals
23%
Oldham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
53%
Oldham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.75 + Oldham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Oldham attack 1.30 + Port Vale defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Port Vale scores more
36%
level
32%
Oldham scores more
32%

Port Vale at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. ProctorPort ValePort Vale · F
9.0

Match Events

10'
J. Proctor↳ C. Hall
16'
C. Missilou↳ H. Hope
30'
R. Edmondson← D. Worrall
34'
J. Proctor↳ R. Edmondson
36'
Aidan Stone
44'
Ben Garrity
45+1'
D. Keillor-Dunn↳ W. Sutton
54'
B. Walker
57'
C. Hussey← R. Edmondson
66'
J. Hopcutt← H. Hope
67'
K. Harratt← J. Wilson
78'
Kian Harratt
81'
K. Jameson← J. Luamba

Possession

51%Port

Shots

12Port

Pass accuracy

52%Port

Statistics

PortOldham
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots14
10Corners6
9Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots14
5On Target5
5Off Target7
2Blocked2
10Inside Box8
2Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
360Total Passes333
237Accurate Passes203
66%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls9
3Yellow Cards0
0Offsides3

League Two: Port Vale 3–2 Oldham

Port Vale beat Oldham 3-2 in League Two on April 9, 2022.

Goals: J. Proctor (10', 34'), C. Missilou (16'), D. Keillor-Dunn (45+1'), B. Walker (54').

Port Vale controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.