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Port Vale vs Oldham — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
3/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Port Vale41%
×Draw28%
Oldham31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.27
Oldham
1.06

Port Vale creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.36
Oldham
1.30

allows per match

Port Vale
0.82
Oldham
1.19

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
69%
Port Vale or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
59%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
18%
Oldham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
72%
Port Vale 2+ goals
36%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
65%
Oldham 2+ goals
29%
Oldham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
57%
Oldham (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.36 + Oldham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Oldham attack 1.30 + Port Vale defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Vale scores more
41%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
31%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. WorrallPort ValePort Vale · M
8.3

Match Events

12'
Andrea Badan
15'
Dylan Bahamboula
20'
Kurtis Guthrie
46'
D. Amoo← D. Rodney
51'
D. Fage← M. Hilßner
60'
C. Whelan← B. Ntambwe
70'
Sido Jombati← R. Diarra
74'
T. Robinson← K. Guthrie
78'
Will Swan
80'
Leon Legge
80'
E. Oyeleke← L. Joyce
90+1'
A. Hurst← W. Swan

Possession

47%Port

Shots

23Port

Pass accuracy

48%Port

Statistics

PortOldham
Overview
47%Possession53%
23Total Shots8
1Corners0
15Fouls9
Shots
23Total Shots8
6On Target2
12Off Target4
5Blocked2
19Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
362Total Passes436
255Accurate Passes328
70%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Oldham

Port Vale and Oldham drew 0-0 in League Two on March 9, 2021.

Oldham controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 23.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.