Oldham 3–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Port Vale

A. Martin 90+3' (OG)

S. Hart 81'

D. Keillor-Dunn 31'

J. Gibbons 52'

D. Worrall 20'

11/20/2021

League Two · Round 17Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oldham46%

×Draw25%

Port Vale29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.18

Oldham

1.55

Port Vale

1.18

Oldham creates 31% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 5 away

1.30

creates per match

1.40

0.96

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Oldham

1.30

Port Vale

1.40

allows per match

Oldham

0.96

Port Vale

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

71%

Oldham or Port Vale

75%

Draw or Port Vale

54%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

23%

Port Vale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

79%

Oldham 2+ goals

46%

Oldham 3+ goals

20%

Port Vale 1+ goals

69%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

61%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.30 + Port Vale defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Port Vale attack 1.40 + Oldham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oldham scores more

46%

level

25%

Port Vale scores more

29%

Oldham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Worrall

Port Vale · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

D. Worrall↳ D. Rodney

31'

D. Keillor-Dunn↳ C. Piergianni

42'

Carl Piergianni

52'

J. Gibbons↳ D. Amoo

55'

H. Hope← O. Cissé

59'

D. Fage← N. Adams

60'

65'

67'

76'

78'

78'

J. Taylor← B. Garrity

81'

S. Hart↳ C. Piergianni

85'

D. Politic← D. Amoo

90+3'

A. MartinOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamPort

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots15

2Corners7

16Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target5

4Off Target6

2Blocked4

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

288Total Passes427

165Accurate Passes318

57%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4