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Port Vale vs Northampton — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
14:00
Northampton
Northampton
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Vale Park
Big match
51%
Port Vale
model favours
51%24%25%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Port Vale51%
×Draw24%
Northampton25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.67
Northampton
1.08

Port Vale creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.33
Northampton
1.33

allows per match

Port Vale
0.83
Northampton
2.00

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
75%
Port Vale or Northampton
76%
Draw or Northampton
49%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
27%
Northampton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
81%
Port Vale 2+ goals
50%
Port Vale 3+ goals
23%
Northampton 1+ goals
66%
Northampton 2+ goals
29%
Northampton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
67%
Northampton (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.33 + Northampton defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Northampton attack 1.33 + Port Vale defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Port Vale scores more
51%
level
24%
Northampton scores more
25%

Port Vale at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
Northampton
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Port Vale face Northampton (League Two)

League Two returns with Port Vale hosting Northampton. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Port Vale host Northampton at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.