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Port Vale vs Northampton — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
B. Garrity 84'
9/16/2023League OneLeague One · Round 8Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale45%
×Draw27%
Northampton28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.37
Northampton
1.02

Port Vale creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Northampton
0.81

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Northampton
1.78

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
72%
Port Vale or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
55%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Northampton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
75%
Port Vale 2+ goals
40%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%
Northampton 1+ goals
64%
Northampton 2+ goals
27%
Northampton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
62%
Northampton (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.37

Northampton attack 0.81 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Port Vale scores more
45%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
28%

Port Vale at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. GuthrieNorthamptonNorthampton · D
7.6

Match Events

46'
E. Monthe← A. Odimayo
46'
A. McGowan← K. Bowie
46'
T. Simpson← L. Appéré
53'
Ethan Chislett
62'
C. Grant← J. Plant
63'
R. Loft← J. Wilson
75'
L. Cass← K. Balmer
75'
B. Garrity← E. Chislett
75'
G. Massey← A. Devine
82'
S. McWilliams← J. Sowerby
84'
B. Garrity↳ C. Grant
86'
H. Lintott← S. Sherring

Possession

61%Port

Shots

13Port

Pass accuracy

53%Port

Statistics

PortNorthampton
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots5
5Corners3
7Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots5
4On Target1
3Off Target4
6Blocked0
8Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
580Total Passes379
460Accurate Passes269
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Northampton

Port Vale beat Northampton 1-0 in League One on September 16, 2023.

Goals: B. Garrity (84').

Port Vale controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.