Northampton 2–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

S. McWilliams 90+4'

M. Pinnock 34'

4/1/2024

League One · Round 42Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Northampton45%

×Draw28%

Port Vale27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.98

Northampton

1.35

Port Vale

0.98

Northampton creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

0.72

1.24

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Northampton

1.08

Port Vale

0.72

allows per match

Northampton

1.24

Port Vale

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

73%

Northampton or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

55%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

21%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Port Vale 1+ goals

62%

Port Vale 2+ goals

26%

Port Vale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

62%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.08 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Northampton scores more

45%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

27%

Northampton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Burge

Northampton · G

7.6

Match Events

16'

34'

46'

46'

46'

58'

58'

64'

70'

S. McWilliams← B. Fox

71'

J. Sowerby← S. Hoskins

71'

T. Simpson← L. Appéré

73'

R. Walters← B. Dipepa

78'

Lee Burge

79'

A. Odimayo← A. McGowan

90+5'

Shaun McWilliams

90+4'

S. McWilliams↳ T. Simpson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonPort

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots13

2Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target4

1Off Target7

4Blocked2

5Inside Box11

3Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

379Total Passes466

261Accurate Passes359

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0