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Port Vale vs Northampton — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
10/4/2025League OneLeague One · Round 11Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Port Vale46%
×Draw28%
Northampton26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.34
Northampton
0.92

Port Vale creates 46% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.84
Northampton
0.69

allows per match

Port Vale
1.16
Northampton
1.85

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
74%
Port Vale or Northampton
72%
Draw or Northampton
54%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
22%
Northampton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%
Northampton 1+ goals
60%
Northampton 2+ goals
23%
Northampton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
64%
Northampton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.84 + Northampton defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.34

Northampton attack 0.69 + Port Vale defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port Vale scores more
46%
level
28%
Northampton scores more
26%

Port Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46
J. GauciPort ValePort Vale · G
8.0

Match Events

24'
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel
29'
Jordan Thorniley
39'
Jaheim Headley
46'
R. Croasdale← J. Headley
46'
J. Vale← E. Wheatley
62'
J. Stockley← D. Brown
62'
R. Curtis← J. Shipley
68'
K. Swyer← T. Fornah
71'
G. Hall← B. Garrity
88'
R. Paton← D. Cole
89'
J. Perkins← N. Guinness-Walker

Possession

56%Port

Shots

8Port

Pass accuracy

54%Port

Statistics

PortNorthampton
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots6
3Corners4
12Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots6
2On Target2
5Off Target2
1Blocked2
6Inside Box3
2Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
379Total Passes298
258Accurate Passes174
68%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

League One: Port Vale 0–0 Northampton

Port Vale and Northampton drew 0-0 in League One on October 4, 2025.

Port Vale controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.