Port Vale 1–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Northampton

D. Amoo 26'

R. Watson 45+2'

8/10/2019

League Two · Round 2Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Port Vale38%

×Draw27%

Northampton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Port Vale

1.29

Northampton

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 90 away

1.37

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Northampton

1.38

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Northampton

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

65%

Port Vale or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

62%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

17%

Northampton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

72%

Port Vale 2+ goals

37%

Port Vale 3+ goals

14%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

34%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

53%

Northampton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Northampton defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Northampton attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Port Vale scores more

38%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

35%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

36'

43'

45'

45+2'

61'

65'

65'

D. Cornell← S. Arnold

71'

M. Cullen← E. Oyeleke

74'

J. Bunney

77'

J. Morias← M. Warburton

90'

S. Hoskins

Port

Northampton

25

▼

Arnold

3

▼

16

2

5

14

10

8

⚽

Watson

7

Hoskins

20

▼

9

1

5

15

2

3

7

A

Worrall

4

Joyce

19

⚽

Amoo

8

▼

Oyeleke

10

Conlon

9

Pope

Manager: J. Askey

71'▲M. Cullen←▼E. Oyeleke

Port Vale substitutes

13Cullen18Evans6Kennedy21Bennett30Maddison11Montaño20Burgess

Manager: K. Curle

65'▲J. Bunney←▼J. Martin

65'▲D. Cornell←▼S. Arnold

77'▲J. Morias←▼M. Warburton

Northampton substitutes

39Bunney1Cornell30Morias11Williams17McWilliams12Pollock6Turnbull

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Northampton

Port Vale and Northampton drew 1-1 in League Two on August 10, 2019.

Goals: D. Amoo (26'), R. Watson (45+2').

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.

Port Vale vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Northampton