Port Vale 2–0 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Harrogate Town

J. Wilson 47'

D. Worrall 27'

9/18/2021

League Two · Round 8Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale45%

×Draw27%

Harrogate Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.08

Port Vale

1.41

Harrogate Town

1.08

Port Vale creates 31% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 138 away

1.37

creates per match

1.11

1.05

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Harrogate Town

1.11

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Harrogate Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

71%

Port Vale or Harrogate Town

73%

Draw or Harrogate Town

55%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

21%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

76%

Port Vale 2+ goals

41%

Port Vale 3+ goals

17%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

66%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

29%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

61%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Port Vale scores more

45%

level

27%

Harrogate Town scores more

29%

Port Vale at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Worrall

Port Vale · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

S. Power← A. Pattison

12'

Jack Diamond

27'

D. Worrall

35'

Lewis Page

35'

R. Fallowfield← L. Page

45+5'

Jack Diamond

45+5'

Jack Diamond

46'

L. Kerry← S. Power

47'

J. Wilson↳ D. Worrall

57'

M. Benning← J. Gibbons

68'

G. Lloyd← J. Wilson

69'

A. Martin← L. Armstrong

71'

J. Taylor← B. Garrity

78'

Lloyd Kerry

79'

Daniel Jones

79'

Tom Conlon

90'

A. Martin← D. Worrall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortHarrogate

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots6

4Corners4

8Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target2

6Off Target2

4Blocked2

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

392Total Passes402

270Accurate Passes278

69%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0