Harrogate Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 117+ matches
Harrogate Town33%
Port Vale40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Port Vale creates 12% more chances
Season form · 138 home / 117 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Harrogate Town ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches
Port Vale away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18
Port Vale attack 1.17 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Port Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Harrogate Town substitutes
Head to Head
Lincoln
Bury
Milton Keynes Dons
Mansfield Town
Forest Green
Tranmere
Newport County
Colchester
Exeter City
Stevenage
Carlisle
Crewe
Swindon Town
Oldham
Northampton
Cheltenham
Grimsby
Morecambe
Crawley TownPort Vale
Cambridge United
Macclesfield
Notts County
Yeovil TownIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Harrogate Town host Port Vale on Tuesday, 22 October 2024 at 18:45. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Harrogate Town vs Port Vale
Port Vale beat Harrogate Town 1-0 in League Two on October 22, 2024.
Goals: R. Paton (54').
Port Vale controlled possession (71%) and registered 20 shots to 12.
The match was played at Exercise Stadium in Harrogate, North Yorkshire.