Harrogate Town 1–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

3/1/2022

League Two · Round 25EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Harrogate Town33%

×Draw27%

Port Vale40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Harrogate Town

1.18

Port Vale

1.31

Port Vale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 118 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

60%

Harrogate Town or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

67%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

14%

Port Vale wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

69%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

33%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Port Vale 1+ goals

73%

Port Vale 2+ goals

38%

Port Vale 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

46%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

33%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

40%

Port Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff