Port Vale 2–4 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Exeter City

B. Dipepa 40'

E. Chislett 31'

M. Alli 89', 57'

L. Harris 79'

Z. Jules 67'

4/13/2024

League One · Round 44Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale37%

×Draw28%

Exeter City35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.18

Port Vale

1.22

Exeter City

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

0.96

creates per match

1.11

1.24

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Port Vale

0.96

Exeter City

1.11

allows per match

Port Vale

1.24

Exeter City

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

65%

Port Vale or Exeter City

72%

Draw or Exeter City

63%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

16%

Exeter City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

70%

Port Vale 2+ goals

34%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Exeter City 1+ goals

69%

Exeter City 2+ goals

33%

Exeter City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

51%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Exeter City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

Exeter City attack 1.11 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Port Vale scores more

37%

level

28%

Exeter City scores more

35%

Port Vale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Alli

Exeter City · F

8.6

Match Events

7'

28'

31'

35'

40'

B. Dipepa↳ B. Garrity

41'

Ben Purrington

46'

Z. Jules← B. Purrington

46'

D. Rankine← C. Watts

47'

Luke Harris

52'

V. Harper← Y. Wildschut

57'

63'

67'

68'

74'

Pedro Borges← V. Harper

79'

L. Harris↳ Pedro Borges

81'

J. Plant← A. Iacovitti

81'

J. Shorrock← J. Debrah

87'

G. Massey← F. Ojo

89'

M. Alli↳ I. Niskanen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortExeter

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots13

4Corners10

11Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target6

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

4Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

358Total Passes430

259Accurate Passes353

72%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3