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Exeter City vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
O. Arblaster 29'
12/9/2023League OneLeague One · Round 21St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Exeter City47%
×Draw27%
Port Vale25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.38
Port Vale
0.93

Exeter City creates 48% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.15
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Exeter City
1.15
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
75%
Exeter City or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
53%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
23%
Port Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
75%
Exeter City 2+ goals
40%
Exeter City 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
61%
Port Vale 2+ goals
24%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
65%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.15 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Exeter City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Exeter City scores more
47%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
25%

Exeter City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. RipleyPort ValePort Vale · G
8.2

Match Events

29'
O. Arblaster↳ B. Garrity
46'
U. Ikpeazu← R. Walters
54'
Conor Grant
64'
K. Taylor← D. Rankine
64'
J. Scott← T. Carroll
72'
Will Aimson
76'
B. Dipepa← E. Chislett
83'
V. Harper← Y. Wildschut
84'
James Scott
85'
Jesse Debrah
88'
A. Iacovitti← O. Arblaster
90+1'
Will Aimson
90+1'
Will Aimson

Possession

61%Exeter

Shots

12Exeter

Pass accuracy

52%Exeter

Statistics

ExeterPort
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots12
12Corners6
10Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots12
5On Target3
5Off Target3
2Blocked6
12Inside Box6
0Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
469Total Passes298
362Accurate Passes210
77%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
4Offsides1

League One: Exeter City 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Exeter City 1-0 in League One on December 9, 2023.

Goals: O. Arblaster (29').

Exeter City controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.