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Port Vale vs Exeter City — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
W. Forrester 60'
2/18/2023League OneLeague One · Round 33Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale37%
×Draw28%
Exeter City35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.22
Exeter City
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Exeter City
1.11

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Exeter City
1.48

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
65%
Port Vale or Exeter City
72%
Draw or Exeter City
63%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
16%
Exeter City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
70%
Port Vale 2+ goals
34%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%
Exeter City 1+ goals
69%
Exeter City 2+ goals
33%
Exeter City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
51%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Exeter City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

Exeter City attack 1.11 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Port Vale scores more
37%
level
28%
Exeter City scores more
35%

Port Vale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
W. ForresterPort ValePort Vale · D
8.3

Match Events

28'
Alex Hartridge
46'
J. Grounds← A. Hartridge
48'
Rekeem Harper
59'
Rekeem Harper
59'
Rekeem Harper
60'
W. Forrester
64'
J. Key← J. Scott
68'
Sam Robinson
75'
D. Mitchell← J. Stansfield
75'
J. Sparkes← J. Caprice
75'
J. White← H. Kite
80'
E. Harrison← G. Massey
86'
M. Benning← S. Robinson
90+8'
William Forrester
90'
Ellis Harrison
90+3'
J. Proctor← M. Taylor

Possession

52%Port

Shots

13Port

Pass accuracy

49%Port

Statistics

PortExeter
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots6
5Corners3
11Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots6
5On Target0
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
5Inside Box2
8Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
357Total Passes334
228Accurate Passes221
64%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls8
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Exeter City

Port Vale beat Exeter City 1-0 in League One on February 18, 2023.

Goals: W. Forrester (60').

Port Vale controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.