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Port Vale vs Crawley Town — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
CANC
00:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
3/14/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Port Vale55%
×Draw24%
Crawley Town21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.69
Crawley Town
0.94

Port Vale creates 80% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 29 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Crawley Town
0.79

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Crawley Town
1.72

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
79%
Port Vale or Crawley Town
76%
Draw or Crawley Town
45%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
30%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
82%
Port Vale 2+ goals
50%
Port Vale 3+ goals
24%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
61%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
24%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
72%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Crawley Town defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crawley Town attack 0.79 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Port Vale scores more
55%
level
24%
Crawley Town scores more
21%

Port Vale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Port Vale vs Crawley Town — Match Preview

Port Vale face Crawley Town on March 14, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Port Vale host Crawley Town at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.