Crawley Town 1–4 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

K. Appiah 44'

D. Amoo 90+4'

G. Francomb 80' (OG)

T. Pett 76'

T. Conlon 49'

10/30/2021

League Two · Round 15The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Crawley Town33%

×Draw27%

Port Vale41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.36

Crawley Town

1.19

Port Vale

1.36

Port Vale creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

1.20

creates per match

1.42

1.30

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

59%

Crawley Town or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

67%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

14%

Port Vale wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

33%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Port Vale 1+ goals

74%

Port Vale 2+ goals

39%

Port Vale 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

45%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.20 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Crawley Town defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crawley Town scores more

33%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

41%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Conlon

Port Vale · F

9.2

Match Events

12'

25'

28'

44'

46'

G. Lloyd← L. Cass

46'

D. Amoo← B. Garrity

49'

T. Conlon

65'

M. Marshall← T. Frost

68'

J. Taylor← D. Politic

76'

T. Pett↳ D. Amoo

77'

A. Davies← W. Ferry

80'

G. FrancombOwn goal

83'

J. Payne← G. Francomb

90+4'

D. Amoo↳ T. Conlon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyPort

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots17

3Corners9

16Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target11

5Off Target6

2Blocked0

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box10

Passing

33%Possession67%

313Total Passes628

209Accurate Passes526

67%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1