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Crawley Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
A. Nadesan 45'
D. Worrall 76'
N. Smith 65'
T. Conlon 12'
3/27/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 38The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Crawley Town33%
×Draw27%
Port Vale41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.19
Port Vale
1.36

Port Vale creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.20
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.30
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
59%
Crawley Town or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
67%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
14%
Port Vale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
70%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
33%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
12%
Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
45%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.20 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Crawley Town defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crawley Town scores more
33%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
41%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
N. SmithPort ValePort Vale · D
8.0

Match Events

12'
T. Conlon
45'
A. Nadesan↳ J. Powell
55'
George Francomb
65'
T. Allarakhia← J. Maguire-Drew
65'
N. Smith
69'
N. Tsaroulla← D. Sesay
69'
S. Matthews← J. Tilley
74'
Cristian Montano
76'
D. Worrall
81'
K. Guthrie← T. Robinson
88'
M. Olagunju← C. Montaño
90+2'
D. Amoo← T. Conlon

Possession

59%Crawley

Shots

13Crawley

Pass accuracy

55%Crawley

Statistics

CrawleyPort
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots12
7Corners5
7Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots12
3On Target5
6Off Target5
4Blocked2
5Inside Box9
8Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
418Total Passes288
275Accurate Passes158
66%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

League Two: Crawley Town 1–3 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Crawley Town 3-1 in League Two on March 27, 2021.

Goals: T. Conlon (12'), A. Nadesan (45'), N. Smith (65'), D. Worrall (76').

Crawley Town controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.