Port Vale 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

J. Debrah 55'

S. Tovide 90'

10/1/2024

League Two · Round 9Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Port Vale44%

×Draw26%

Colchester29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Port Vale

1.42

Colchester

1.10

Port Vale creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

1.66

creates per match

1.12

1.09

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Port Vale

1.66

Colchester

1.12

allows per match

Port Vale

1.09

Colchester

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

71%

Port Vale or Colchester

74%

Draw or Colchester

56%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

21%

Colchester wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

76%

Port Vale 2+ goals

41%

Port Vale 3+ goals

17%

Colchester 1+ goals

67%

Colchester 2+ goals

30%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

60%

Colchester (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Colchester defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Colchester attack 1.12 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Vale scores more

44%

level

26%

Colchester scores more

29%

Port Vale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Stockley

Port Vale · F

7.9

Match Events

31'

R. Croasdale← G. Byers

34'

Arthur Read

44'

Ben Heneghan

46'

R. Curtis← A. Hackford

46'

J. Debrah← B. Heneghan

46'

R. Richards← T. Sang

55'

J. Debrah↳ E. Chislett

60'

Alex Woodyard

62'

Kyle John

63'

L. Taylor← A. Donnelly

63'

J. Payne← A. Woodyard

63'

J. McDonnell← A. Scully

67'

M. Egbo← R. Hunt

75'

J. Gordon← T. Hopper

78'

L. Tolaj← E. Chislett

86'

Tom Flanagan

90+2'

Mandela Egbo

90'

S. Tovide

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortColchester

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots12

3Corners3

8Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target2

6Off Target4

6Blocked6

7Inside Box7

9Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

492Total Passes279

397Accurate Passes175

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1