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Colchester vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Colchester
Colchester
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
F. Kelleher 86'
S. Tovide 34'
R. Richards 85'
3/11/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 29JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colchester38%
×Draw27%
Port Vale35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.29
Port Vale
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.39
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
65%
Colchester or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
62%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
17%
Port Vale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
70%
Port Vale 2+ goals
34%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
53%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.39 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colchester scores more
38%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
35%

Colchester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
F. KelleherColchesterColchester · D
7.7

Match Events

34'
S. Tovide
42'
Kyle John
46'
L. Taylor← S. Tovide
63'
J. Stockley← E. Chislett
64'
J. Umolu← K. John
75'
J. Tucker← J. Payne
77'
Mitchell Clark
80'
Rob Hunt
82'
T. Sang← R. Croasdale
82'
R. Richards← M. Clark
85'
Ellis Iandolo
85'
R. Richards↳ J. Stockley
86'
F. Kelleher↳ L. Taylor
87'
R. Harper← R. Walters
89'
T. Simpson← O. Edwards

Possession

41%Colchester

Shots

11Colchester

Pass accuracy

48%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterPort
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots8
4Corners3
16Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots8
6On Target3
4Off Target1
1Blocked4
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
41%Possession59%
305Total Passes443
209Accurate Passes329
69%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Colchester vs Port Vale

Colchester beat Port Vale 2-1 in League Two on March 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Tovide (34'), R. Richards (85'), F. Kelleher (86').

Port Vale controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.