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Colchester vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Colchester
Colchester
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
D. Rodney 19'
3/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 37JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colchester38%
×Draw27%
Port Vale35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.29
Port Vale
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.39
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
65%
Colchester or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
62%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
17%
Port Vale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
70%
Port Vale 2+ goals
34%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
53%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.39 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colchester scores more
38%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
35%

Colchester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
D. RodneyPort ValePort Vale · F
8.0

Match Events

16'
Emmanuel Oyeleke
19'
D. Rodney↳ T. Conlon
46'
J. Tchamadeu← M. Welch-Hayes
46'
C. Senior← N. Chilvers
61'
Cristian Montano
62'
Leon Legge
75'
A. Oteh← B. Stevenson
77'
Frank Nouble
79'
D. Amoo← T. Robinson
89'
Scott P. Brown
89'
K. Guthrie← D. Rodney
90'
Tom Eastman
90+4'
M. Olagunju← C. Montaño

Possession

58%Colchester

Shots

9Colchester

Pass accuracy

52%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterPort
Overview
58%Possession42%
9Total Shots9
8Corners3
8Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots9
1On Target4
6Off Target4
2Blocked1
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
416Total Passes306
271Accurate Passes181
65%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

League Two: Colchester 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Colchester 1-0 in League Two on March 20, 2021.

Goals: D. Rodney (19').

Colchester controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.