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Port Vale vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
12/12/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale44%
×Draw27%
Colchester28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.35
Colchester
1.02

Port Vale creates 32% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 180 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Colchester
1.00

allows per match

Port Vale
1.05
Colchester
1.34

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
72%
Port Vale or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
56%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Colchester wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%
Colchester 1+ goals
64%
Colchester 2+ goals
27%
Colchester 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
61%
Colchester (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Colchester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Colchester attack 1.00 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Vale scores more
44%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
28%

Port Vale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Port Vale 1–1 Colchester

Port Vale and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.