Port Vale 5–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackpool

R. Curtis 90'

D. Cole 86'

J. Headley 74'

G. Byers 58'

J. Stockley 54'

T. Bloxham 27'

1/1/2026

League One · Round 24Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Port Vale43%

×Draw29%

Blackpool28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.96

Port Vale

1.25

Blackpool

0.96

Port Vale creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

0.90

creates per match

0.76

1.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Port Vale

0.90

Blackpool

0.76

allows per match

Port Vale

1.17

Blackpool

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

72%

Port Vale or Blackpool

71%

Draw or Blackpool

57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

19%

Blackpool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

36%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Blackpool 1+ goals

62%

Blackpool 2+ goals

25%

Blackpool 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

60%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.90 + Blackpool defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Blackpool attack 0.76 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more

43%

level

29%

Blackpool scores more

28%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Curtis

Port Vale · M

9.7

Match Events

15'

23'

27'

43'

45+1'

46'

R. Curtis← R. Croasdale

46'

G. Hall← Kyle John

46'

C. Hamilton← T. Bloxham

54'

J. Stockley↳ R. Curtis

58'

G. Byers↳ D. Cole

62'

S. Banks← A. Fletcher

63'

A. Lyons← D. Imray

63'

J. Bowler← J. Brown

68'

J. Headley← M. Johnson

74'

J. Headley↳ J. Shipley

77'

80'

81'

83'

85'

86'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortBlackpool

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots2

2.65Expected Goals (xG)0.22

5Corners2

14Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots2

6On Target1

6Off Target1

5Blocked0

13Inside Box2

4Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

357Total Passes366

265Accurate Passes258

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3

League One: Port Vale 5–1 Blackpool

Port Vale beat Blackpool 5-1 in League One on January 1, 2026.

Goals: T. Bloxham (27'), J. Stockley (54'), G. Byers (58'), J. Headley (74'), D. Cole (86'), R. Curtis (90').

Port Vale controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 2.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.

Port Vale vs Blackpool — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Port Vale 5–1 Blackpool