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Blackpool vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
8/15/2023League OneLeague One · Round 3Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Blackpool51%
×Draw25%
Port Vale24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.56
Port Vale
0.99

Blackpool creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.50
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
76%
Blackpool or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
49%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
26%
Port Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
79%
Blackpool 2+ goals
46%
Blackpool 3+ goals
21%
Port Vale 1+ goals
63%
Port Vale 2+ goals
26%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
68%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.50 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Blackpool scores more
51%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
24%

Blackpool at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. RipleyPort ValePort Vale · G
8.0

Match Events

24'
Sonny Carey
61'
T. Sang← O. Arblaster
61'
Joshua Thomas← G. Massey
62'
J. Beesley← S. Carey
72'
J. Lowe← E. Chislett
77'
J. Weir← K. Dougall
77'
M. Virtue-Thick← A. Morgan
88'
Daniel Jones
90+4'
L. Cass← M. Clark

Possession

62%Blackpool

Shots

14Blackpool

Pass accuracy

54%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolPort
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots8
4Corners2
5Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target1
4Off Target5
6Blocked2
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
593Total Passes377
465Accurate Passes254
78%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

League One: Blackpool 0–0 Port Vale

Blackpool and Port Vale drew 0-0 in League One on August 15, 2023.

Blackpool controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.