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Blackpool vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
R. Walters 81'
A. Fletcher 72'
N. Ennis 46'
R. Walters 59'
D. Brown 2'
3/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 38Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Blackpool50%
×Draw26%
Port Vale24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.54
Port Vale
0.98

Blackpool creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.50
Port Vale
0.70

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Port Vale
1.58

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
76%
Blackpool or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
50%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
26%
Port Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
79%
Blackpool 2+ goals
45%
Blackpool 3+ goals
20%
Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
26%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
68%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.50 + Port Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Port Vale attack 0.70 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blackpool scores more
50%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
24%

Blackpool at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. BloxhamBlackpoolBlackpool · F
7.9

Match Events

2'
D. Brown
46'
N. Ennis↳ J. Bowler
59'
R. Walters↳ J. Shipley
64'
C. Hamilton← J. Randall
65'
K. Anderson← G. Honeyman
65'
L. Clarkson← H. Coulson
69'
A. Gray← D. Brown
69'
B. Garrity← J. Shipley
71'
J. Husband← M. Ihiekwe
71'
T. Bloxham← N. Ennis
72'
A. Fletcher↳ T. Bloxham
74'
Martin Sherif
76'
Liam Gordon
79'
O. Hernandez← M. Sherif
79'
G. Hall← R. Walters
79'
J. Headley← L. Gordon
81'
R. Walters↳ J. Husband
90+5'
Tyler Magloire

Possession

54%Blackpool

Shots

14Blackpool

Pass accuracy

52%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolPort
Overview
54%Possession46%
14Total Shots12
6Corners5
11Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots12
4On Target5
4Off Target2
6Blocked5
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
349Total Passes297
247Accurate Passes196
71%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Port Vale

Blackpool beat Port Vale 3-2 in League One on March 17, 2026.

Goals: D. Brown (2'), N. Ennis (46'), R. Walters (59', 81'), A. Fletcher (72').

Blackpool controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool.