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Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
C. Maycock 88'
2/3/2026League OneLeague One · Round 29Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Port Vale41%
×Draw27%
AFC Wimbledon32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.36
AFC Wimbledon
1.16

Port Vale creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 25 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
AFC Wimbledon
1.08

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
AFC Wimbledon
1.76

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
68%
Port Vale or AFC Wimbledon
73%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
59%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
19%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
69%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
32%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
56%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.08 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Vale scores more
41%
level
27%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
32%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
L. GordonPort ValePort Vale · D
7.7

Match Events

12'
Ben Garrity
12'
Marcus Browne
38'
Connor Hall
46'
J. Stockley← D. Brown
46'
G. Hall← B. Garrity
62'
Ryan Johnson
68'
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel
73'
C. Maycock← Z. Nelson
73'
A. Hackford← M. Browne
83'
M. Stevens← O. Bugiel
88'
C. Maycock↳ A. Smith
90+1'
B. Waine← J. Lawrence-Gabriel
90'
E. Campbell← L. Gordon
90+1'
P. Bauer← R. Nkeng

Possession

53%Port

Shots

10Port

Pass accuracy

48%Port

Statistics

PortAFC
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots10
10Corners1
12Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots10
2On Target1
5Off Target4
3Blocked5
7Inside Box8
3Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
365Total Passes329
235Accurate Passes229
64%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

League One: Port Vale 0–1 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Port Vale 1-0 in League One on February 3, 2026.

Goals: C. Maycock (88').

Port Vale controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.