Port Vale 2–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

C. Eagles 69'

N. Smith 21'

4/1/2017

League One · Round 41Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Port Vale41%

×Draw27%

AFC Wimbledon32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.16

Port Vale

1.36

AFC Wimbledon

1.16

Port Vale creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 25 away

0.96

creates per match

1.08

1.24

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Port Vale

0.96

AFC Wimbledon

1.08

allows per match

Port Vale

1.24

AFC Wimbledon

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

68%

Port Vale or AFC Wimbledon

73%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

19%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

74%

Port Vale 2+ goals

39%

Port Vale 3+ goals

16%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

69%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

32%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

56%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.08 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Vale scores more

41%

level

27%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

32%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

21'

48'

58'

69'

71'

D. Poleon← A. Barcham

72'

J. Antwi← T. Elliott

77'

A. De Freitas← C. Eagles

81'

A. Egan← D. Parrett

90+2'

W. Reeves← S. Foley

90'

D. Turner← R. Cicilia

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PortAFC

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots8

3Corners8

7Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target2

5Off Target6

1Blocked0

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1