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AFC Wimbledon vs Port Vale — League One 2025

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
A. Hackford 72'
D. Cole 86'
10/11/2025League OneLeague One · Round 12The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AFC Wimbledon44%
×Draw28%
Port Vale28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.32
Port Vale
0.99

AFC Wimbledon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Port Vale
0.66

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.32
Port Vale
1.60

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
72%
AFC Wimbledon or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
56%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
20%
Port Vale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
73%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
38%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
15%
Port Vale 1+ goals
63%
Port Vale 2+ goals
26%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
61%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.04 + Port Vale defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Port Vale attack 0.66 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
44%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
28%

AFC Wimbledon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. HackfordAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · F
7.7

Match Events

46'
Ryan Croasdale
67'
A. Hackford← D. Orsi-Dadomo
67'
J. Stockley← R. Croasdale
69'
Jake Reeves
72'
A. Hackford
76'
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel
77'
C. Maycock← M. Browne
80'
R. Paton← R. Curtis
86'
D. Cole
90+1'
Isaac Ogundere
90'
M. Faal← G. Hall

Possession

45%AFC

Shots

6AFC

Pass accuracy

48%AFC

Statistics

AFCPort
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots16
5Corners11
10Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots16
4On Target3
1Off Target6
1Blocked7
3Inside Box12
3Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
246Total Passes303
154Accurate Passes206
63%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

League One: AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Port Vale

AFC Wimbledon and Port Vale drew 1-1 in League One on October 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Hackford (72'), D. Cole (86').

Port Vale controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.