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Port Vale vs Accrington ST — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Vale Park
49%
Port Vale
model favours
49%27%24%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Port Vale49%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.44
Accrington ST
0.93

Port Vale creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.50
Accrington ST
0.89

allows per match

Port Vale
0.96
Accrington ST
1.39

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
76%
Port Vale or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
51%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
24%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
76%
Port Vale 2+ goals
42%
Port Vale 3+ goals
18%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
61%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
24%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
67%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.50 + Accrington ST defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Accrington ST attack 0.89 + Port Vale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Port Vale scores more
49%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
24%

Port Vale at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (0.9 vs 0.5 expected)
  • Port Vale and Accrington ST have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Port Vale
Balanced
Accrington ST
Direct / counter-attacking
50%PossessionBiggest gap41%
66%Pass accuracy61%
12.4Shots11.2
—xG0.54
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Port ValeAccrington ST

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vale
WLWLL
ST
DLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Port Vale host Accrington ST

November 14, 2026: Port Vale take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Port Vale host Accrington ST at Vale Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.